Who's really calling the shots in the parcel market?

The online store sells the product. The fulfillment company processes the order. The carrier delivers the package to the customer.

On paper, this division of roles seems simple. But anyone who looks at developments in the parcel market can see that carriers are having an increasingly significant influence on how e-commerce evolves. Who is actually in control of the parcel market: the online store, the fulfillment company, or the carrier?

Two major players account for a significant portion of the Dutch market

In the Netherlands, PostNL and DHL are the two major players in package delivery. In addition, we at Cenfil deliberately work directly with bpost, including for our shipments to Belgium. It’s interesting to note that DHL also partners with bpost to deliver shipments to Belgian consumers.

But if you’re a fulfillment company with sufficient volume, you have another option. We route our Belgian shipments directly to bpost in Belgium.

This means that, for a fulfillment company, volume is more than just a means of negotiating better rates. Volume can provide access to other logistics routes—and, with that, greater control.

In my opinion, there is no such thing as the best carrier

That’s also why I don’t believe in the idea of a single “best” carrier. The right choice can vary depending on the online store, destination, package profile, and desired service.

PostNL, for example, has explicitly chosen a strategy that shifts the focus from volume to value. The company is placing greater emphasis on customer segmentation, differentiated offerings, and volume. At the same time, PostNL is investing in package lockers, data, technology, and a shift from standard next-day delivery to more frequent “best-day” delivery.

DHL places a strong emphasis on its European network, delivery options, service points, and package lockers. Bpost is also investing heavily in alternatives to home delivery and the further expansion of package lockers.

So all three are changing, but not necessarily in exactly the same way. And that’s precisely why I think a fulfillment company needs to have multiple options.

Are carriers pitting fulfillment companies against each other?

Fulfillment companies handle large volumes of packages and negotiate individually with carriers regarding volumes, rates, surcharges, and terms. But just how transparent is that market, really?

Do two fulfillment companies with similar volumes and similar package profiles also receive similar terms? Or can commercial agreements differ to such an extent that a carrier indirectly influences the competitive position of fulfillment companies?

I don't have the information to say that this is actually happening. But I do think it's a question our industry should ask itself.

At the same time, as fulfillment companies, we also need to take a look at ourselves. When we focus primarily on competing with each other by offering the lowest shipping rates, we automatically make the carriers’ purchasing terms a key part of our own competitive position. So perhaps we are partly perpetuating that system ourselves.

We talk too much about rates

And that’s where I actually see a much bigger missed opportunity. Discussions between fulfillment companies and carriers often focus on volumes, rates, surcharges, and terms and conditions. But carriers have much more to offer.

They have vast logistics networks and see firsthand on a daily basis what happens when dealing with large volumes of packages and recipients. Where do consumers want to receive their packages? How important will package lockers become? Will home delivery remain the dominant option? Do consumers really want to receive everything tomorrow? How are international package flows evolving? And how can we organize the last mile more efficiently?

These are strategic questions about which carriers can build up a great deal of knowledge due to their scale. I believe we, as fulfillment companies, should make much greater use of that knowledge.

From a transportation provider to a strategic knowledge partner

As far as I'm concerned, the carrier of tomorrow shouldn't just deliver packages—it should also bring expertise on where e-commerce is headed.

The online store knows its customers. The fulfillment company sees on a daily basis what’s happening operationally with inventory, orders, peak periods, and returns. And the carrier sees what happens next within the network and during the last-mile delivery.

When you bring those three worlds together, it creates much more value than when the conversation focuses solely on how much a package should cost next year.

Maybe we should sit down together in a different way

That is why I believe the relationship between fulfillment companies and carriers should continue to evolve—not only during the annual rate negotiations, but also with an eye toward the future.

What changes are you seeing? Where are consumers heading? What investments are on the horizon? And how should we prepare our online stores for these changes today?

Perhaps that is why fulfillment companies and carriers should view each other less as mere negotiating partners and more as strategic partners in the continued development of e-commerce.

So who's ultimately in charge?

Perhaps the answer to my original question is, after all: no one alone.

The future of e-commerce requires both freedom of choice and collaboration. A fulfillment company must retain sufficient flexibility to choose the right shipping route for each online store and destination. Carriers must retain the flexibility to organize their networks efficiently and in a way that is future-proof. And ultimately, the online store must be able to deliver on its promise to the consumer.

Because, ultimately, it’s not about who has the most control. It’s about who is willing to share their knowledge to improve the entire supply chain.

The future of e-commerce will not be determined by whoever offers the cheapest shipping, but by the parties that work together to build the smartest path to the consumer.